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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still